I know that common sense says that this is a battle between George Clooney and Jean Dujardin. Clooney has the Globe and the BFCA, and he's become Oscar's chosen one, but Dujardin has Globe, SAG and BAFTA. That, in my opinion, really gives Dujardin the edge, not to mention the fact that he's starring in the Best Picture frontrunner. Oldman and Bichir are just along for the rides. I could see a possible upset in Oldman's favor ONLY because he's supposedly beloved and older and this is his first nomination (which is a triumph in itself) and his film is peaking at the right moment, but in all honesty I still think that the best bet for an upset would be Pitt. He's an underrated talent who has had a banner year and his film did surprisingly well with Oscar. Still, I'm putting my money on Dujardin.
Will win - Dujardin
Should win - Dujardin
Dark horse - Pitt
Lead Actress:
It really looked for a while like this was going to be Michelle Williams Oscar. She was doing ridiculously well with the critics awards and then her thunder was stolen and she walked away with a mere predictable Globe win. Since the BFCA, this race has turned into a two way race (much like Lead Actor) between Streep and Davis. Streep has the Globe and the BAFTA and Davis has the BFCA and the SAG. There is large debate as to whose wins mean more, and I totally lean on the Davis side since SAG really is an important win. BAFTA members, while usually the last to weigh in, don't contain a large majority if Oscar voters, and their taste is often skewed to films and or actors resonating from their homeland. Streep's win was somewhat expected, considering who she was portaying in the film. Still, I think there is a major factor in this race that is being ignored due to her poor showing overall, and that is Glenn Close. She is an Oscar loser who is desperate for that golden man, to the point where she practically did this entire movie on her own to ensure herself Oscar gold. It looks like it's backfireing, but sentiment goes a long way in this industry, so you never know.
Will win - Davis
Should win - Mara
Dark horse - Close
Supporting Actor:
I've had this race pegged between Branagh and Plummer since the beginning of the year. It just seemed right. Oddly enough, this hasn't been a race at all. Plummer has dominated, and rightfully so. His beautiful performance in 'Beginners' is the perfect high note in his career resurgence to garner him the Oscar that has been absent from his career up until now (this is, bizarely, only his second nomination).
Will win - Plummer
Should win - Plummer
Dark horse - Nolte
Supporting Actress:
I don't understand what has happened here. I mean, I really loved the ensemble of 'The Help' as a whole, but Spencer's domination of this race is bizare to me, especially since her also nominated co-star, Jessica Chastain, nearly swept through the critics awards and turned in the better performance. Why isn't SHE winning the Oscar? Besides that, Bejo is the best in the bunch (although she is arguably lead), but this category is sadly underwhelming. Where is Carey Mulligan? Where is Vanessa Redgrave? Why is this category so bland?
Will win - Spencer
Should win - Chastain (simply because Bejo is lead and Chastain is truly supporting)
Dark horse - Bejo
Animated Feature:
Rango. There really isn't any use debating this since Tin Tin was snubbed here.
Will win - Rango
Dark horse (or, for fun, the random nominee I chose as a possible upset) - A Cat in Paris
Art Direction:
Production Design: Laurence Bennett; Set Decoration: Robert Gould
Production Design: Stuart Craig; Set Decoration: Stephenie McMillan
Production Design: Dante Ferretti; Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo
Production Design: Anne Seibel; Set Decoration: Hélène Dubreuil
Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales
Hugo has dominated this particular category, and I expect it to continue on to winning the Oscar here too, unless The Artist REALLY sweeps (which is could). This is somewhat uninspired, but expected I guess. I don't understand the constant repeat nominations for Harry Potter when they seem to regurgitate a lot of the same sets. I mean, if they aren't good enough to win (ever) then why keep nominating them?
Will win - Hugo
Should win - Hugo
Dark horse - The Artist
Cinematography:
All signs point to this finally being Lubezki's Oscar ticket. The movie is respected, his work is ridiculously good and the film actually landed (surprisingly) in Best Picture and Best Director after a poor guild showing. Still, Malick films are disgustingly under-rewarded when it comes to Oscar and Oscar tends to fawn over Best Picture frontrunners. The Artist also has that added bonus of being presented in glorious black and white. I usually lose my shit for black and white cinematography, but I for one was not that impressed with many of the technical aspects of The Artist (I wouldn't nominate it here, or in Art Direction and Costume design) so I hope my gut is wrong, but I really think that The Artist is going to win this rather easily.
Will win - The Artist
Should win - The Tree of Life
Dark horse - The Tree of Life
Costume Design:
This category, much like Makeup, is usually a wild guess. I mean, this could really go any which way and it wouldn't be that surprising. Oscar loves period pieces, and all of these fit that bill with the exception of parts of W.E. and possibly, depending on how you define period, Hugo. Also, they love Hollywood, and so The Artist has that covered, not to mention that they love Best Picture frontrunners and that Havey character. But they also love Sandy Powell. UGH. What the hell!
Will win - The Artist
Should win - W.E.
Dark horse - Jane Eyre
Directing:
Is there really any doubt here? Allen and Scorsese are previous winners. Scorsese has won a few important awards, and his film has the most nominations of any film nominated this year. Malick is well respected, a surprise here but his film is beloved for this very aspect of it. Payne is helming that one film that a lot of people love for some weird reason, and he's been here before. Then there is that French guy. Seriously, don't matter who you are on that list, if your name isn't Michel Hazanavicius then you didn't direct The Artist, and if you didn't direct The Artist then you aren't going to win this Oscar.
Will win - Hazanavius
Should win - Hazanavius
Dark horse - Scorsese
Documentary:
Marshall Curry and Sam Cullman
Joe Berlinger and Bruce Sinofsky
Wim Wenders and Gian-Piero Ringel
TJ Martin, Dan Lindsay and Rich Middlemas
My wild guess - Pina
Documentary (short subject):
Robin Fryday and Gail Dolgin
Rebecca Cammisa and Julie Anderson
Daniel Junge and Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy
Lucy Walker and Kira Carstensen
My wild guess - The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
Film Editing:
This category usually favors the Best Picture frontrunner, unless the showiness of the editing is too undeniable. I'd say, without hesitation, that this is The Artist's to lose.
Will win - The Artist
Should win - Moneyball or The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (for different reasons, but both are stellar)
Dark horse - The Descendants
Foreign Language Film:
I hate this category. The rules that apply here make it really difficult to determine the frontrunner. Whenever a film feels like it's going to win (Amelie, Pan's Labyrinth, The White Ribbon) it loses to a lesser film with sudden surgence (except in the case of Pan's, which lost to a much better film overall). A Separation appears to be on track to take this without obstical. It has dominated, and many consider this to be the best film of the year, regardless of language. Still, I'm almost hesitant to choose it as the winner. I'll stick with it, but when another film is called I won't be surprised.
Will win - A Separation
Dark horse - In Darkness
Makeup:
Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight and Lisa Tomblin
Will win - The Iron Lady
Dark horse - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Original Score:
Will win - The Artist
Should win - The Artist
Dark horse - Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Original Song:
Music and Lyric by Bret McKenzie
Music by Sergio Mendes and Carlinhos Brown; Lyric by Siedah Garrett
What the hell happened here?
Will win - The Muppet song
Dark horse - The other song
Best Picture:
This is really a three way race between The Descendants, Hugo and The Artist. The Artist is OBVIOUSLY out in front, but the same reasons that it is in front could ultimately be the same reasons it comes in second place on Sunday night. It's almost like playing devil's advocate here, because the support for the film is almost overwhelming, but it is silent and it is French and it is light and frothy. The Descendants is heavyhanded and Oscary in tone and Hugo is Scorsese and has reached that beloved status and is, well, American. Still, The Artist should take this in the end.
Will win - The Artist
Should win - Moneyball (by a hair, but The Artist is my second pick from this rather lackluster lineup)
Dark horse - Hugo
Short Film (animated):
Wild guess - La Luna
Short Film (live action):
Wild guess - Tuba Atlantic
Sound Editing:
Will win - War Horse
Should win - Drive
Dark horse - Hugo
Sound Mixing:
David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Bo Persson
Tom Fleischman and John Midgley
Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, David Giammarco and Ed Novick
Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush and Peter J. Devlin
Will win - War Horse
Should win - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Dark horse - Hugo
Visual Effects:
Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler and John Richardson
Erik Nash, John Rosengrant, Dan Taylor and Swen Gillberg
Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Matthew Butler and John Frazier
Will win - Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Should win - Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Dark horse - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
Adapted Screenplay:
This is a two man race, with Moneyball and The Descendants going toe to toe for their possible sole in of the night (baring any surprises). I'm leaning towards Moneyball, since it is far more deserving, but the recent win for The Descendants could swing things in its favor.
Will win - Moneyball
Should win - Moneyball
Dark horse - The Descendants
Original Screenplay:
Will win - The Artist
Should win - I still need to see A Separation, so I can't really say, but I'd take Bridesmaids over the other four (screenplay wise)
Dark horse - Midnight in Paris
Title: My final winners predictions for Oscar night.
Rating: 100% based on 99998 ratings. 5 user reviews.
11:07 AM
Rating: 100% based on 99998 ratings. 5 user reviews.
11:07 AM
