LIKELY
1. JULIA ROBERTS (AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY)
Oscar Record: 3 nominations, with a win for Erin Brockovich
Pre-Oscar Citations: None
Role: Barbara Weston, eldest daughter in a dysfunctional family, currently separated from her husband.
This race seems to be really open. With no one else receiving a lot of buzz, Julia Roberts is an easy frontrunner.
POSSIBLE
2. CATE BLANCHETT (THE MONUMENTS MEN)
Oscar Record: 5 nominations, with a win for The Aviator
Pre-Oscar Citations: None
Role: Rose Valland, French art historian and military captain, one of the most decorated women in French history.
This would be a much surer thing if it were clear that she'd be campaigned in this category. Once that's announced, she will be Roberts's major competition until an unexpected name pops up. She'll be playing a revered character in a George Clooney film about saving art from Nazis, and she'll be putting on a French accent. Oscar-bait.
3. MARGO MARTINDALE (AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY)
Oscar Record: No nomination
Pre-Oscar Citations: None
Role: Mattie Fae Aiken, antagonistic sister to the matriarch of the Weston clan
Margo Martindale has been a well loved, respected character actress for many years now, recently in television. This role won its actress Rondi Reed a Tony award and other accolades, so she's definitely a possibility in this possibly weak race.
4. CATHERINE KEENER (CAPTAIN PHILLIPS)
Oscar Record: 2 nominations, no win
Pre-Oscar Citations: None
Role: Andrea Phillips, wife of the captain of MV Maersk Alabama, which was hijacked by Somali pirates in 2009.
In a similarly weak year, Catherine Keener got a nomination for a quiet, overly subdued turn in Capote as real-life author Harper Lee. This type of role ("suffering wife"), another true-to-life role, could easily snag her a third nomination.
5. OCTAVIA SPENCER (FRUITVALE)
Oscar Record: 1 nomination and win for The Help
Pre-Oscar Citations: None
Role: Wanda Grant, mother of the young man wrongfully shot to death by a police officer.
Octavia Spencer is quite loved in this industry, as evidenced by her having easily sailed through sweeps in the acting race in 2012, and this film was warmly received in Sundance. It's the type of role that could easily get a nomination in any year.
6. Isla Fisher (The Great Gatsby)
Oscar Record: No nomination
Pre-Oscar Citations: None
Role: Myrtle Wilson, a discontented wife with a secret.
7. Rooney Mara (Ain't Them Bodies Saints)
Oscar Record: 1 nomination, no win
Pre-Oscar Citations: None
Role: Ruth Guthrie, wife of an outlaw.
8. Onata Aprile (What Maisie Knew)
Oscar Record: No nomination
Pre-Oscar Citations: None
Role: Maisie, a young girl caught in the middle of her parents' divorce.
9. Kristin Scott Thomas (Only God Forgives)
Oscar Record: 1 nomination, no win
Pre-Oscar Citations: None
Role: Ruth Guthrie, wife of an outlaw.
8. Onata Aprile (What Maisie Knew)
Oscar Record: No nomination
Pre-Oscar Citations: None
Role: Maisie, a young girl caught in the middle of her parents' divorce.
9. Kristin Scott Thomas (Only God Forgives)
Oscar Record: 1 nomination, no win
Pre-Oscar Citations: None
Role: Jenna, a manipulative mother who compels her son to kill the whoever caused his brother's death.
10. Carey Mulligan (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Oscar Record: 1 nomination, no win
Pre-Oscar Citations: None
Role: Jean Berkey, a folk singer in 1960s New York.
Other Contenders
Abigail Breslin (Ender's Game)
Toni Collette (The Way, Way Back)
Toni Collette (The Way, Way Back)
Viola Davis (Ender's Game)
Jodie Foster (Elysium)
Nicole Kidman (The Railway Man)
Nicole Kidman (Stoker)
Julianne Moore (Carrie)
Ellen Page (The East)
Michelle Pfeiffer (Malavita)
Julianne Moore (Carrie)
Ellen Page (The East)
Michelle Pfeiffer (Malavita)
Zhang Ziyi (The Grandmasters)
