So, Sunday night is the SAG Awards. I'm stoked, mostly because I have no idea how this is going to unveil. I have my speculations, but this awards season has been so bizarre (right down to the Oscar noms and Argo's steamroll towards unexpected Oscar loss) that trying to get a real handle on who is actually going to walk away with SAG Awards is kind of hard. PGA will probably do absolutely nothing tomorrow (I expect Argo to win) but it could change the game if a film like Silver Linings Playbook (my current thought for the Oscar) nabs an unexpected win. Remember back in 2010, it was PGA's decision to award The King's Speech over The Social Network that shifted everything in the race.
So, let's talk about SAG. It isn't uncommon to see some surprises here. They don't always see eye to eye with Oscar, and considering that this is a large voting body of actors rewarding actors, there are times when career awards are doled out instead of just handing the award to the actor destined for Oscar. Look at 2007, when both Ruby Dee and Julie Christie won SAGs and yet were snubbed in favor of Swinton and Cotillard at the Oscars. This may be the case in the Supporting Actor category this year. I have a feeling that De Niro is going to win this, but I still don't think he's winning the Oscar (although he might). In fact, I'm leaning towards Silver Linings Playbook raking in three big wins Sunday; Supporting Actor, Lead Actress and Ensemble.
The only one I'm 100% confident in is Anne Hathaway winning for Les Miserables, but DDL is probably a lock too (even though he already has two of these). If he loses, I could easily see it being to Jackman, who is a beloved actor and who has worked with many of his peers (and it doesn't hurt that he may be the most likable person in the world).
Ensemble is a really weird race. It could honestly go to anyone except The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. Argo has been hitting hard everywhere it goes, but I have a feeling that it is going to round out fourth here. Lincoln could take this, but SAG is weird and they only 'nominated' such a small amount of the actual cast that it's almost embarrassing and insulting to be honest. I just don't think the voting body will reward that, especially when a lot of the names left off the ballot are the names singled out in the reviews. That brings me to Les Miserables and Silver Linings Playbook. Like I mentioned, I'm betting on Silver Linings Playbook, but I would not be shocked it Les Miserables took this. It is a very big ensemble filled with baity characters and enough moments for the whole cast to shine to varying degrees. It also just 'feels' like an ensemble winner. My reluctance to predict it comes from the fact that it really doesn't have a chance to win the Best Picture Oscar at this point, and a lot of the times this award goes to the film deemed the 'Best Picture' (it shouldn't, but it does). That being said, The Help won last year, so maybe a more starry, ensemble reliant film CAN win again.
I still say Silver Linings Playbook takes a HUGE step towards Oscar glory Sunday night.
My full predictions (with alternates) below:
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Winner: Silver Linings Playbook
Alternate: Les Miserables
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Winner: Day-Lewis/Lincoln
Alternate: Jackman/Les Miserables
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Winner: Lawrence/Silver Linings Playbook
Alternate: Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Winner: De Niro/Silver Linings Playbook
Alternate: Jones/Lincoln
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Winner: Hathaway/Les Miserables
Alternate: Field/Lincoln
Winner: Silver Linings Playbook
Alternate: Les Miserables
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Winner: Day-Lewis/Lincoln
Alternate: Jackman/Les Miserables
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Winner: Lawrence/Silver Linings Playbook
Alternate: Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Winner: De Niro/Silver Linings Playbook
Alternate: Jones/Lincoln
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Winner: Hathaway/Les Miserables
Alternate: Field/Lincoln
