Well, they’re in. Let’s take a look at what this means for Oscar.
BEST PICTURE: DRAMA
Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
I correctly predicted four of these, mistakenly thinking that The Impossible would get a boost from the HFPA. Instead, Life of Pi continues its march towards getting nominated for everything. I’m so sick of this movie, and the thing is, I didn’t hate it THAT much when I saw it, I was merely disappointed, but all this undeserved attention is making me angry. Alas, at the end of the day all that matters is the Fistis, so whatever. Django Unchained may actually happen in a bigger way than I anticipated.
BEST PICTURE: COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Les Miserables
Moonrise Kingdom
Salmon Fishing in the Yemen
Silver Linings Playbook
I never expected Salmon Fishing in the Yemen to show up anywhere this season. I haven’t seen the film yet (been in my Netflix queue for quite a while) but I haven’t heard anything about it and just assumed it was forgotten by all, but apparently the HFPA loved it. Other than that, I got four correct. I overestimated Bernie, but I’m glad that it missed since I find it horribly overrated.
BEST DIRECTOR
Affleck/Argo
Bigelow/Zero Dark Thirty
Li/Life of Pi
Spielberg/Lincoln
Tarantino/Django Unchained
Again, I underestimated Life of Pi (I need to stop doing that) but I really didn’t see Hooper missing here. I thought that the HFPA would eat Les Miserables up whole, and they didn’t! I knew they’d nominate Tarantino here. They love him (and Weistein) so it was a given. I’m still not entirely sold on Tarantino making it in with Oscar, but it appears that Li is locked up now.
BEST ACTOR: DRAMA
Day-Lewis/Lincoln
Gere/Arbitrage
Hawkes/The Sessions
Phoenix/The Master
Washington/Flight
Again, I got four correct (that seems to be the name of the game here). I predicted that Hopkins would get in over Gere, but I should have known that Gere’s reviews, being infinitely better, would have worked in his favor here. The rest of the list is expected. I’m still not certain as to who gets the shaft from Oscar, Phoenix, Washington, Cooper or Hawkes.
BEST ACTRESS: DRAMA
Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty
Cotillard/Rust + Bone
Mirren/Hitchcock
Watts/The Impossible
Weisz/The Deep Blue Sea
Again, I got four correct here but OMG YAY I’M SO GLAD WEISZ IS IN!!! I had her predicted after her NYFCC win, but then took her out in favor of the starrier Knightley. STUPID! Anyways, this category has a four-way lock up now. Hitting everything so far, Cotillard, Chastain, Lawrence (nominated in Comedy/Musical) and Watts are all headed to the Kodak. That fifth spot is open for grabs, and Mirren, Wallis, Weisz and Riva are running for it. I wouldn’t count out Riva yet. It isn’t surprising that she didn’t get in here or with SAG. If she misses with BAFTA then I’d say she’s dead, but not until then.
BEST ACTRESS: COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Blunt/Salmon Fishing in the Yemen
Dench/The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Lawrence/Silver Linings Playbook
Smith/Quartet
Streep/Hope Springs
Well, I only got three right here. I missed Blunt (who saw that love coming) and Smith (I really thought her movie was dead). I wasn’t every confident in Streisand (that movie looks dreadful) but she’s a huge star and there didn’t seem to be any other options, and I had a feeling that Mann would show up here since she’s young and a rising star and has been noted for her comedic timing time and time again. Lawrence will take this in a cakewalk, waltzing her way to the Kodak for what is probably going to be a good night for her.
BEST ACTOR: COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Black/Bernie
Cooper/Silver Linings Playbook
Jackman/Les Miserables
McGregor/Salmon Fishing in the Yemen
Murray/Hyde Park on Hudson
Well, I only got three here too. I kind of thought Murray was completely dead and, again, never saw Salmon Fishing in the Yemen happening. I thought Jones’ great year would make him a double nominee and that Tatum’s great year would make him at least a nominee here, but whatever. This SHOULD have been an easy win for Jackman, but the lack of Les Miserables love across the board has me worried he may lose this to Cooper.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Adams/The Master
Field/Lincoln
Hathaway/Les Miserables
Hunt/The Sessions
Kidman/The Paperboy
I actually got 100% here! Barks is probably dead now, unless BAFTA really loves Les Miserables (which I expect they will) but even then, will it be enough? Kidman is making a real show here now, so maybe she could happen! I have a feeling that this could actually be our Oscar lineup. This has not been a good year for newcomers.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Arkin/Argo
DiCaprio/Django Unchained
Hoffman/The Master
Jones/Lincoln
Waltz/Django Unchained
I’m shocked to see Waltz here since I was under the impression he went Lead here, but it’s Weinstein so I guess he can do whatever he wants. I only got three of these. I thought this would be an EASY nomination for McConaughey and so now I’m thinking he’s going to miss with Oscar. The SAG snub was telling, but this is even MORE telling. De Niro missing doesn’t mean much, although I thought he was a sure bet as well. I won’t even speak of Crowe missing. He’s not happening with Oscar and it depresses the hell out of me. I’m thinking that in the end, Waltz misses for De Niro and we have our Oscar lineup.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Amour
The Intouchables
Kon-Tiki
A Royal Affair
Rust and Bone
I got four of these, missing Kon-Tiki (Weinstein, I should have known) for War Witch, which had marvelous reviews but hasn’t done shit so far this awards season.
BEST SCREENPLAY
Argo
Django Unchained
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Moonrise missing is sad, but I should have known that Zero Dark Thirty was getting in here. So, I got four, and I expect all five of these to get nominations with Oscar.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Anna Karenina
Argo
Cloud Atlas
Life of Pi
Lincoln
I don’t know what I was thinking with this category. Like, how did I not predict Anna Karenina? Argo has been doing really well in this category, so why didn’t I switch that? Why the hell did I predict Brave? I’m an idiot, apparently. The Beasts of the Southern Wild snub is sad, but I should have known that wouldn’t happen. I only got two right here!
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Brave
Frankenweenie
Hotel Transylvania
Rise of the Guardians
Wreck-It-Ralph
I only got three, missing Rise and Hotel (forgot about that one) for Paranorman and Pirates. Oh well, this category is confusing with a lot of passion for smaller films and only three locks (Brave, Frankenweenie and Wreck-It Ralph) landing everywhere.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"For You"/Act of Valor
"Not Running Anymore"/Stand-Up Guys
"Safe and Sound"/The Hunger Games
"Skyfall"/Skyfall
"Suddenly"/Les Miserables
Yeah, I got two here. I should have known Swift would be invited to the party. Is Act of Valor happening?
